The harvest may already feel like a distant memory, but we are now in a position to look back and reflect on the performance of the cereal crops that are sat in barns across the UK.
Outside of the UK, the conflicts in Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East continue to have a significant influence on both the grain and energy markets. Russia have lost the Black Sea as an option for moving its sizable quantity of grain shipments, which is hurting the country's economy. While there are moves to use Baltic ports for these shipments, this comes with logistical and cost issues.
This situation has been developing for long enough that world markets have taken all the consequences of this reduced availability of Russian and Ukrainian grain into account. Unless there is some form of agreement to reopen the Black Sea route, we won’t see prices soften quickly. There are still hopes that a Turkish ceasefire proposal to free up the shipping channels in the Black Sea might succeed, which is also helping keep markets slightly subdued.
The continuing conflict between the US and Iran has meant we keep seeing fuel prices hitting record highs. This has been compounded by concern of Saudi Arabia’s oil movements being restricted by Houthi rebels in Yemen,
These factors, along with ongoing updates on Western European and US maize harvests showing poor crop conditions, as well as the looming El Niño weather events, keep pointing toward a bullish cereal market in the short to medium term.
Crop conditions
Wheat
The first yield statistics are now filtering through, with the AHDB figures giving a good indication of the repercussions felt from the dry and warm UK summer.
The ten-year average yield for the UK is quoted at 7.9 tonnes/hectare, with the average for 2026 rated at 6.9 tonnes/hectare. The yield figures indicate a 1.7 million tonne shortfall against anticipated tonnage.
Despite this, the effect on stock levels will not be so significant due to the large area of wheat sown this year.
The north/south differential in crop performance is stark, with regional yield variations being reported. Across the UK, the average yields vary from 3.9 tonnes/hectare to 11.5 tonnes/hectare, with the lowest averages across the southern English counties and the strongest yields in Scotland.
The establishment of next year's crops is experiencing similar issues. Farms in the north have seen a reasonable amount of rainfall, and wheat crops are emerging nicely. However, seedbeds in the south are dry and will need a substantial amount of rain to allow for healthy sowing conditions.
The dry weather is also preventing the growth of the main weed problem in winter cereals in southern UK, namely blackgrass. Normally, arable farmers in England will delay sowing until the blackgrass has established so it can be sprayed off and allow the cereals to grow unhindered. With these dry conditions, this isn’t currently happening. This could lead to complications getting the cereal crops sown into clean seedbeds this autumn.
Barley
Interestingly, the AHDB figures for winter barley are exactly the same as wheat, at 6.9 tonne/hectare.
The winter barley crop has maintained a reasonable yield, and matched its five-year average. This is likely down to two factors. Many of the southern barley crops were past the stage of being seriously affected when the direst conditions hit, and a slightly larger poportian of winter barley is grown in the wetter north of the UK.
However, as with the sowing of winter wheat, the winter barley crop establishment will require a good, moist seedbed this autumn. At present, this is only available in the north. This means there is a concern for winter barley getting off to the best possible start for much of the UK
AHDB figures indicate an average yield of just 4.8 tonnes/hectare for Spring barley. This is 17% below the five-year average for the crop, and reflects the conditions in which sowing took place.
Across the UK, the crop didn’t thrive due to the dry conditions putting it under too much stress. This led to poor tillering and small head formations, which have taken their toll on yield tonnage.
Due to slightly more broken weather conditions in Scotland during September, there are still a small number of farms trying to harvest the last of their spring barley fields. There is such a small amount of acreage to cut that it won't affect the overall yield assessment.
Markets
Wheat
When writing September's update, the wheat market was extremely bullish, which was reflected in the UK Nov wheat futures, which rose almost £10 in the last week of August to £215.75. That trend continued, before peaking at £221.25 on the 2nd September. Since then, the market has settled and, by the end of September, was trading at £204.
Now, much of the focus turns to how the maize harvests in Western Europe and the UK perform, with just half an eye on how crops develop in the Southern Hemisphere, with El Niño on the horizon.
The physical market is still quite wary of so many potential bullish factors, and traders are tending to keep ex-farm values at levels where farmers are interested in selling into - for example, the ex-farm price for feed wheat in South Scotland is £201 for November, just £2 less than being offered a month ago despite the futures falling by £10.
Barley
With concerns in France for their maize crop (in mid-Sept it was rated only 23% good/excellent, which is a record low) as well as reports on a poor US maize harvest filtering through, there is a fairly good case for the barley market to be well supported.
Despite this, the barley prices remain at similar levels to a month ago, with ex-farm prices in Scotland trading between £170 in northern areas and £176.50 in the south for a November move. The reason behind the stronger southern market is due to good demand developing from south of the Border in Cumbria and Yorkshire particularly.
There is still a little hint of demand for malting barley, although the price of £180 ex-farm doesn't offer much in the way of a premium. With very little barley being exported from Ukraine and the maize harvest issues having their effect on potential barley outlets, there is still a sense that barley values have some room to develop as we head into winter. This may become even more stark if El Niño casts some wintry conditions over the UK over the next few months, thereby increasing the demand for livestock feed.
With a much stronger picture of what northern hemisphere harvests have provided and circumstances on the global conflict front continuing unabated, there are very strong foundations to expect well-supported grain markets heading into the winter.
With the southern hemisphere harvests coming under the spotlight soon, the markets will respond to how the main cereal harvests in Australia, Brazil and Argentina develop. It could be quite an interesting growing season leading into harvest 2027.