After a May in which the UK sizzled, June bought with it a more mixed weather pattern. The sun has still been shining, but there has also been a reasonable amount of rain.
The US wheat harvest has now started, with many areas reporting serious drought issues. Unsurprisingly, the yield in these regions looks to have suffered, as what rain did fall looks to have been too little, too late for the crops to stand a chance of recovering.
The US/Iran situation continues to create uncertainty, with a fragile peace just about holding on. The significant easing of oil prices as tankers begin to pass through the Straits of Hormuz has had the effect of stabilising the grain markets.
Crop conditions
Wheat
June’s more balanced weather has been welcomed by wheat crops, with the vast majority still at a stage where moisture has helped toward retaining tillers and assisting grainfill.
Crop conditions vary considerably across the UK. Scotland and the northern counties of England are reporting highly promising crops, while crops in the south are drier and patchier. Crops that were rated as poor in June are unlikely to respond effectively to rain, but those that are considered fair or better will benefit on yield and grain quality.
Interestingly, even after some widespread rainfall, the AHDB carried out another crop assessment just after mid-June and the crops rated at good/excellent had fallen from 64% in May to 58%. Despite this, the overall tonnage of wheat harvest for 2026, on top of reasonable tonnages in stock, will mean there is likely to be an exportable surplus lurking within UK stores through 2026-2027.
Barley
The south has seen a few combines in the fields cutting crops over the final few days of June. Early reports from there crops are describing below average yields, small grains and very low grain moistures, ~10% in some cases. This points to fields that have senesced prematurely due to the dry conditions we have had.
Much like the wheat crops, there is a distinct north/south divide on crop ratings. Scottish winter barley is being rated at 98% good/excellent, while UK crops as a while have been given a rating of 62% rating. The recent rain is unlikely to change this much beyond delaying harvest slightly.
There has been quite a lot of comments about the effect that Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus (BYDV) has had on winter barley crops. Despite the widespread nature of this virus this season, any strong crops seem to have coped with it really well and it’s only the stressed crops which have suffered to any degree.
Similarly, the good/excellent ratings for spring barley in Scotland are pretty high at around 90% whereas the UK average is only 57%. This is largely due to the conditions in the south as crops become established. While June’s rain will help spring crops, it is unlikely to do much for those that were poorly established. In fact, this weather could cause the crops to throw out late tillers which may create issues at harvest with moisture levels and spoiling malting samples.
All spring crops are now well headed and past flowering stages so will now be looking for a good degree of sunshine to help grain fill over the next month or two. This time last year, many of the thicker crops of spring barley had started to lodge but this year nearly all the crops are standing a lot better which will make harvesting much easier.
Markets
Wheat
With reports from the US harvest showing poor yields, the US markets haven’t reacted wildly as this had already been factored into the prices.
Mixed reports are coming from Western Europe, with rain giving hope to improving maturing wheat crops. However, ratings on maze crops have fallen sharply, leading to a forecast drop as much as 30% on expected yields due to dry conditions affecting crops at the sensitive silking stage.
Concerns remain in the southern hemisphere around the effect on Australian crops following on from a season were fertiliser usage feel considerably due to sharply rising prices.
Old crop - There is so little domestic demand for wheat that no ex-farm prices appear to be available. Also, very little wheat is being offered from farms at this point.
New crop - The bearish sentiment seen at the start of June has continued throughout the month and new crop prices have trended downwards quite steadily over the past weeks. The UK 2026 November wheat futures started the month at £187 and has fallen to £179. The ex-farm values, having increased in May, have now started easing along with the futures and the Central Scotland ex farm price is now just under £180 for Nov move (£185 ex at start of June).
Another change in the past month is the value of the 2027 November wheat offer which has fallen from £196 a month ago down to £188 now. Given how strong the concerns were only a few weeks ago that the poor US crops and the stressed crops in Europe and UK would lead to some hefty drops in wheat production, the market seems to now have a view that the carry-over stocks and a slightly better harvest in Western (and Eastern) Europe will provide sufficient wheat to comfortably cater for the softer demand being noticed recently.
Barley
With the harvest already starting in tsouthern areas of the UK, and crops in the north progressing towards that point, the old crop market has disappeared entirely.
Prices on new crop barley continue to be firm from the levels offered at the start of June. The current value being proposed for November 2026 is around £165, up £5 from a month ago. Although the demand for barley will fall sharply this season from the malting/distilling buyers, this is partially balanced by the AHDB report of the acreage sown in Scotland in spring barley which is the smallest seen since 1965. Given that the wheat acreage in Scotland has risen by 7%, the fact that the overall cereal acreage in Scotland has fallen by 5% gives an indication to how much less barley has been sown this year with farmers adjusting their cropping plans following the drop in malting demand. There is still quite a strong expectation that the export market could be quite positive this season, a situation which could develop if the European maize crops continue to struggle. With all this taken into account, it looks like the barley market will be a bit more bullish than the wheat for the short/medium term.
June’s conditions have led to the marketing leaning towards a bearish view to wheat, which has seen buyers taking a step back from committing to tonnages for a new crop. Going forward, there is a stronger feel for barley.
As ever, there are bound to be twists and turns over the next weeks and months, which will create varying sentiments. It keeps grain marketing where it can't be described as predictable.