With just a minimal late crop of spring wheat or oats still to cut, there is now enough data from the 2025 harvest to give a more accurate assessment of the outcomes and consequences of the last year.
The ongoing merry-go-round of farming is noticeable once again, as farmers jump from combine harvesters, almost straight into cultivating and seed drilling to get 2026 crops into the ground.
Reports of excellent seedbeds are coming in from all over the country, with just enough moisture to allow a good tilth, without having to overwork the soil. This gives growers pleasure to know that crops are off to a good start, which is a positive for many after a disappointing harvest.
Crop conditions
Wheat
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has quoted the overall average yield for wheat crops as 7.6T/ha, up from 2024's 7.3T/ha, but still considerably lower than the 10-year average of 8.1T/ha. It needs to be remembered that this is only a general figure and doesn’t really reflect the significant variability of crops across the UK.
The dry conditions that have been seen this season have been extreme enough in some southern areas of the UK to have delivered yields of barely 5T/ha. This is in contrast to areas in the north of England and Scotland, which have heavier soils which have seen some reports as high as 114-15T/ha.
The total wheat production for the UK 2025 harvest has been estimated at 12.3mT.
Looking at quality, many reports are showing healthy specific weights and, along with respectable protein levels and Hagberg figures, crops grown for quality markets have achieved the standard needed to qualify for the available premiums.
Barley
Our September update looked at the performance of the winter barley crop. As reported then, the average UK yield had been assessed at 6.7T/ha, which is just below the ten-year average of 6.9t/ha. It is also worth noting that the standard was reasonably good, with high specific weights and bold grain size.
Spring Barley has been much more mixed, and, in some cases, it is giving cause for concern. It has been well reported that maltsters were less enthusiastic to buy non-contract barley this harvest and, in some cases, advising that contract barley may have to be stored on farm for several months.
However, this harvest has taken the pressure off malting barley buyers due to a large proportion of the UK barley failing to reach quality specifications. There are two reasons for this failure. In parts of England, the levels of Nitrogen have been too high to achieve the standards set out in many contracts. This grain has, in most cases, been well enough filled and weighing to a standard that is suitable for the feed or export markets.
Travel further north and barley harvested in Eastern Scotland, particularly from Fife up, has suffered from high screening levels (grain falling through a 2.5mm scree). Even though Nitrogen tests have often been of a good enough standard, there is a maximum specification of 15% screenings on almost all malting barley contracts, and a high proportion of the Scottish barley crop has tested higher than this.
In addition to these samples falling short, the samples with the smallest grains are also struggling to achieve the minimum quality specifications to market as feed. The generally acceptable specific weight for feed barley is 63kg/hl, and most merchants will likely find buyers for samples testing down to around 60kg/hl. There seems to be quite a high tonnage of barley weighing quite well below 60kg/hl, and, as such, it is almost unmarketable. Even livestock farmers shy away from such grains since their animals don't perform well when fed with such poor barley.
Many merchants are aiming to blend the poor-quality grain, but there doesn't seem to be enough high-specific-weight barley around to balance the quality needed to achieve the standards to sell into home or export markets. Very concerning for those with these barley samples.
Nationally, the UK yield figure for spring barley has been quoted by AHDB at 5.8 T/ha, which is exactly the same as the 10-year average. However, like wheat, this only tells a fraction of the overall story for barley harvest 2025.
Markets
Wheat
November wheat futures have now been rangebound since early August, trading between £165 and £170 in that period. All indications are that this is unlikely to change anytime soon. There is a support level at £167, which means the prices probably won't fall much below this band, and there is enough pressure on the market values for wheat globally to prevent much upside.
Russian wheat export prices have recently fallen to $225 to interest buyers, and both Russian and EU wheat harvest estimates have just been raised in recent reports, the latter to a 10-year high, which all combine to put pressure on the UK wheat values.
There is quite substantial tonnages of wheat being traded within the EU and UK, so it is unlikely there will be any buyers looking to pay any more than the minimum necessary to cover their short to medium term requirements. The USDA are releasing a stocks report on 1st Oct, which is expected to show large wheat stock tonnages, not helping the global softness for wheat. It will also comment on a drop in maize stocks, although a very high US maize crop this year will supplement that. If there is one area which may help both wheat and barley values, it is the drop in expected maize yields across the EU due to dry conditions. The latest forecast yields for EU maize are well below the 5-year average. This may help support prices, but not by much.
Locally, feed wheat is trading for October at £165 ex farm, rising to £169/£170 for Dec.
Barley
As already mentioned, there is a large amount of material which was originally intended for malting markets, now being sold for feed. This has depressed the feed barley market across the country, especially in Scottish markets. Whereas some parts of England can trade barley around £130 ex-farm, on the north side of the border, prices vary between £110 and £125. With some merchants aiming to put export cargoes together, they are offering premiums to farmers with high specific weight barley in their stores - virtually all winter barley - with which they can then handle some poorer quality grain into the bulks.
The premium prices may reach about £135 ex-farm, and the low-quality barley is being priced, depending on spec, going as low as £105 - £110 ex. The main problems looming are that there simply isn't enough good barley to cover the quantity of poor grain, and many growers with better quality samples want to hold onto it, hoping for prices to improve later in the season, since currently the prices on offer don't cover production costs.
In summary, it is seriously challenging times for many growers. But, ever the optimists, farmers are cracking on sowing again for the 2026 harvest!