When we put together the August update, we discussed the earliness of the harvest. With favourable harvesting conditions throughout August, we have recorded the earliest UK cereal harvest.
Although there are some very small pockets of spring barley and oats to cut, most cereal crops are now in the sheds, allowing us to make some judgment calls on how the 2025 harvest has performed and the effect it has had on the grain markets.
Crop conditions
Wheat
The yield reports coming from the different areas of the UK are making it nearly impossible to gauge what the overall national production is likely to be.
Figures of yield barely reaching 5t/ha have been coming in from the southern areas of England, while other areas have reported in excess of 15t/ha. The AHDB yield report of the 20th August gave an average UK figure of 7.3t/ha, which is 5% below the five-year average, and 10% below the ten-year average.
The finer details of the 2025 harvest are still coming to light, so the full details of the harvest yield returns will be known before long.
The quality of the wheat this season has been good, with high protein, good Hagberg, and high specific weights, making crops grown for the milling markets should fulfil the quality specifications.
Dry conditions throughout harvesting helped farmers harvest wheat crops at low moisture levels, which has reduced post-harvest drying costs for farmers.
Barley
With the winter barley harvest now a distant memory, there is much more data available to assess the overall national position for the crop.
The 2025 average yield has been calculated to be 6.7t/ha, which is equal to the five-year average.
With the wheat crops, there are large regional variations in yield being reported, with the lighter soils in south England delivering the poorest returns and the heavier soils between Yorkshire and the Scottish Borders giving much better tonnages. All reports indicate crops with healthy specific weights and good grainfill, which will help with marketing the crops.
The consequences of the dry weather through April and May are now being seen by farmers harvesting spring crops. Early reports coming from farms in England show high nitrogen results from barley that had been intended for the malting market. While some areas in Scotland are showing better quality test results, much of the barley north of the border has shown similar disappointing traits. There have also been reports of exceptionally high screening tests, which will be due to the late tillers within the crops not filling properly when matured.
Maltsters made it clear pre-harvest that they would not need as much barley from this harvest, with limits being placed on the maximum amount of nitrogen of 1.65 and screenings at 15% over 2.5mm screen have meant a high proportion of barley destined for malting is now deemed as feed quality.
A significant amount of barley with the high screening is subsequently displaying a low specific weight, with many weighing less than 60kg/hl. This is making many crops unmarketable, except for the farm-to-farm trade, which will be at the lowest end of the market values.
Markets
Wheat
The UK wheat futures continue their bearish trend when it reached a new contract low for Nov 25 trading of £166.20 on the 19th August. It remained low, and is currently at £168.40.
Despite the UK wheat harvest appearing to once again fall short in tonnage for UK demand, the pressure from global market values is keeping the UK prices in the doldrums. With the early harvest across most of Europe, there are substantial quantities of wheat hitting the markets just now, and this factor, alongside continuing news of a record US maize harvest and a raised global wheat estimate, is keeping the buyers out of the market, which is pressuring the prices downwards quite effectively.
From a grower's perspective, the hope is that once the harvest pressure subsides and perhaps some more buyers become active in the market, prices may start to show signs of recovery later in the year.
Locally, feed wheat values are trading ex-farm at £175 pre-Christmas, with spot trade around £169-£170. Soft distilling wheats are holding a £5 premium over these feed prices.
Barley
The amount of spring barley falling from the malt market has been taking its toll on the feed market, with local markets only paying £125-£130 per ton.
Even these low values will drop further for samples that are testing with low specific weights.
Despite the high proportion of barley failing the malting specifications, the maltsters are not opening their doors for non-contract barleys at this stage and the given 'spot market' price for malting has not been formally announced. Expectations are that when this price does get released, it isn't likely to be particularly bullish, possibly in the region of £165-£170 ex-farm.
As mentioned in last month's report, the quantity of barley in the market in Scotland and North England is much greater than the local buyers can handle, so the export market will likely be required to take the surplus out of circulation. The quality issue will affect which samples can trade into this market. It may mean that a 2-tier market develops where the better-quality grain gets exported and the home market scrambles, at lower prices, for the best of the remainder. In any case, the short term doesn't look particularly rosy for feed barley values. As with the wheat market, growers who can store their produce will be hoping that things improve later in the year after the current pressure on grain movement eases off.
This harvest will be remembered not only for being the earliest on record, but also for some of the most challenging markets for farmers to deal with due to quality concerns and lack of demand, keeping prices at levels in line with production costs