With some relief, the drought conditions we had through April and May came to an end, but not in the overly excessive fashion which many farmers had feared.
Crops have now reached a stage where the effects of the dry weather can be assessed, which is something we will look at in this report. As well as the extremes in weather, farmers continue to contend with uncertainty in the grain markets, which are further disrupted by global political upheaval.
With plenty to look at as we head towards harvest, let's get into this month's crop update.
Crop conditions
Wheat
The rain showers that fell from the start of May and into early June helped to relieve the signs of stress that were beginning to show on wheat crops. These showers varied regionally, so there will be crops that are still short of the moisture they require to fulfil their potential.
A recent Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) survey found that crops rated good to excellent only rose to 38%, a two per cent rise from May, despite the rainfall.
Most South Scotland growers are optimistic about their heat crop yield potential, although there is quite a notable regional variation in crop conditions, so that optimism isn’t repeated everywhere.
Another positive to consider is the impact that the amount of energy the sunshine has given to the crops and the improvement in weight and quality that this gives.
While most crops are free of disease, there have been reports of aggressive yellow rust infections. Robust spraying programmes have proved to be effective at limiting the damage from these attacks.
For the start of July, wheat crops are advanced with many past flowering and at the forward stages of milky ripeness, which indicates that an early harvest is likely to be on the horizon.
Barley
With the spring conditions, there are quite significant differences between crops sown in the winter and those sown in spring.
Winter barley has coped well through the dry conditions, and most crops maintained the tillers on their plants, which has left the crop yield potential looking very promising. Much like wheat crops, barley has energy from the high levels of sunlight the crops have received. This should give a high quality of grain, which in turn helps with yield.
Across the country, there is concern about the performance potential of spring-sown barley due to the varied levels of rainfall crops have received and whether crops were sown early or late.
Later sown crops were drilled into dry seedbeds and haven’t been able to establish properly. A large proportion of spring crops have been stressed to the point that they either stopped tillering or dispensed with the tillers at an early stage. This will affect the yield potential and, if it rains in June, it will trigger these crops into developing later tillers that will ripen later than the main stems, creating issues at harvest time. These late tillers can be seen in fields with crops that were beginning to show signs of ripening, now turning green again as tillers rise through the crop.
With reports of winter crops already being harvested in south-east England, it won’t be long until farmers in the north get the combines out. I would expect this to happen around the 10th July, weather permitting, which would be the earliest seen in this part of the world.
Spring barley is now at the flowering stage for the main stem grains. But, the later tillering stems will be later in maturing, which creates problems when looking at a suitable harvest date.
Markets
Wheat
The bearish trend in the wheat market continues, with Nov 2025 futures trading at a new contract low of £175.25 at the end of June. Prices did briefly rally with issues in Ukraine and the Middle East, but that spell came to an end with the wheat harvest getting underway in the warmer parts of the northern hemisphere and reports of better yield forecasts from the International Grain Council and European crop monitors. The latter increasing expected yields by 1% for wheat and 2% for barley. This immediately put pressure on the European markets, which responded by softening support prices across the continent.
Weak demand from consumers of wheat has continued, as they realise that there is no need to rush into buying while the market continues with its bearish sentiment. It is now likely that farmers who haven’t sold into the market already will hold product in store in the hope that something improves during the season.
Locally, standard feed wheat values are trading for pre-Christmas positions at sub-£180 ex-farm.
Barley
With the winter barley harvest coming into view, demand for old crop has dried up. New crop barley is trading at uncomfortably low levels, around £155-£160 ex-farm. This level has remained the same, as any drop below this mark will see farmers putting the crop into store and holding firm until prices improve. These levels are close to the cost of production for most growers, so it isn’t looking promising for a profitable barley crop this season, especially from spring crops.
Farmers who are aiming their crops at the malting market face the issue of late uptake of nitrogen in the grain, which could put the grain N levels too high for the market. There is also the concern of late tillering, which could lead to spoiling the sample at harvest with immature grains. Buyers aren’t looking for as much grain to malt this year, so poor quality samples will struggle to be accepted, and issues such as immature grains could be used as a reason to fail samples from the harvest. As a result, more barley could reach the feed market, which will help to suppress the opportunity for prices to improve.
As I said at the end of last month, it is a difficult time for grain farmers with cereal prices very close to cost of production levels and no immediate sign of where any great recovery is going to come from. Let's hope that August brings with it a cheerier crop update.