There is one subject that you can be sure we will talk about each month, and that is the weather. Sure enough, the May 2025 crop update is no different.
April and May have set records across the UK for the lowest amount of rainfall seen. At the end of April, this was seen as a positive as it allowed for the early sowing of crops into good seedbeds. One month later, the lack of any significant rainfall has begun to have a more negative effect.
Meanwhile, markets continue to be disrupted by global political uncertainty, creating a situation where decision-making for both farmers and buyers is challenging.
Crop conditions
Wheat
With wheat crops well established in good seedbeds last autumn, most have come through this dry spell quite well.
A recent AHDB survey saw crops across the country rated as good to excellent have fallen from 60% to just 36%. The majority of this drop in condition has been seen in crops in the south, and it is worth remembering that the survey was carried out before the recent rain, which has had a positive effect.
Wheat crops in Scotland are still looking full of promise for a good harvest. One thing that will affect all crops will be the delay in taking in the latest nitrogen fertilisers, which have been delayed due to the dry conditions. If this has a great impact on yield will be difficult to ascertain until harvest.
Wheat crops are now getting close to ear emergence, with many plants now having boots swollen and the first ears just beginning to show.
Barley
The dry conditions mean that there is a clear distinction between winter and spring sown barley.
Winter barley has coped well since, like wheat crops, the good autumn and winter conditions allowed the plants to establish good root systems, allowing them to find moisture effectively.
Despite being sown into excellent seedbeds, spring crops have struggled and are going to be lacking in height and tillers due to the stress that the lack of water has created. This is bound to have a negative impact on yield potential.
As with wheat, the late application of fertiliser will have a negative effect, with much of the residual nitrogen being taken up with the recent rainfall.
For spring barley that is destined for the malting market, this could affect the grain nitrogen levels, which could limit the number of samples suitable for the sector.
Winter barley has been headed for a couple of weeks now, and many crops will be at or just past the flowering stages. If the weather stays good, it looks like an early harvest is on the cards.
Spring barley has shown rapid progress through the growth stages, as is often the case, as the plant responds to stress. Many crops are already at awn emergence, with full ear emergence only about a week away.
Markets
Wheat
As mentioned in the May update, wheat markets are being dragged down by a weak global market. Ongoing slow demand has meant that this has continued.
Wheat is trading around £170 for old crop in this locality, and the likelihood of any late recovery is looking slim. A good assessment of the season-end stock levels can now be made, and reports are beginning to show a figure of around 3mT, despite a poor 2024 harvest. This high figure is due to ongoing low demand along with almost 3mT of imported wheat, which is the second highest level of imports recorded. Less wheat has been used in feed rations, and low demand from the pig and poultry markets is the main element behind the soft demand.
This is all leading towards a weaker new crop market for wheat, which is reflected in recent falls in the Nov futures pricing, which traded below £180 over recent days. Ex-farm prices of £185 for November are becoming scarce as buyers shy away from supporting the trade.
Barley
There has been some late demand for feed barley, possibly driven by livestock farmers needing to supplement slow-growing grass after the dry weather.
However, prices are still struggling to reach £170 ex-farm for old crop, and this recent interest could disappear now that rain has fallen.
There is still a lessening demand for malting barley, which could lead to more heading to the feed market, despite a lower acreage being sown this year. This situation could also be exacerbated by the samples not meeting the malting standard due to higher nitrogen levels or due to higher levels of immature grains because of large amounts of tillers bursting out after the recent rainfall. Regardless, the values don’t look to be improving at this point from levels around £155-£160 that are currently being quoted for post-harvest feed barley.
With cereal prices close to cost-of-production levels, and with no immediate sign of recovery, these are difficult times for grain farmers.