Crop update: October 2022
With the 2022 harvest now safely in the stores, we wanted to share an update on the sowing conditions for winter barley that is going into the ground this autumn for the 2023 harvest.
Soil temperatures are still good and, along with the recent showers giving the required moisture, the seed beds are in fine fettle. As we are only just at the start of October, it must be expected that the establishment of winter cereals will be at least as good as it was last year, which was a very healthy one.
Market update
A high proportion of the Scottish spring barley has been of the required quality for the malting market. Despite this, values for malting have maintained a strong value and have traded between £285-£288 ex-farm for several weeks.
Generally, this would mean that there is less barley entering the feeding market, there are no signs that the feed barley values are likely to increase much in the short term. Coupled with the political turmoil surrounding the latest mini-budget, which sparked a significant tumble in the price of sterling, would normally make for a significant increase in the price of grain. However, barley pricing has remained stagnant as, so far, the market has been driven by internal buyers and no particular interest in export has materialised so far. With buying markets such as pig and poultry being under pressure, this has held prices steady rather than pushing them upwards. Current feed barley prices ex-farm is between £250-£255.
On the wheat front, the weaker sterling has certainly given prices a boost with increases in the region of £25+/t being seen over the past couple of weeks. Earlier in September, prices seemed to be range-bound between £265 and £270 but have recently been trading at £295 for October with one or two adventurous merchants pushing some prices up to £300/t. With corn prices in the US being supportive and the ongoing Ukrainian situation not looking like it will be resolved any time soon, it is likely the only downside to the wheat market in the near future is a resolution to the currency issues.
The 2023 harvest prices are still following the current movements of the 2022 markets but in a couple of months, there will be a better idea of crop area and establishment of autumn cereals which may have some effect on trade expectations for the new season 2023 harvest.