Heavy spells of rain in the early parts of June continued to test the spring cereals that made it into the ground in late April and early May. The latter part of the month saw more forgiving conditions, but the rain at the start impacted the progress of these crops in areas where the rain fell heaviest.
The conditions haven’t had the same effect on winter cereals, but they certainly haven’t benefitted from the poor weather.
Crop conditions
Wheat
While there are areas that are patchy and thinner than ideal thanks to the conditions we experienced in the autumn, the greater majority of crops are looking well. With warm and sunny conditions from now until harvest, could deliver healthy yields.
Many crops are now heading and, with disease pressure quite high, the following few weeks will be critical for good weather to get head sprays on and allow for good grain fill.
Barley
Winter barley is the cereal crop that has the potential to perform closest to expectations since the crop has progressed through the season most consistently.
Early crops are senescing quite strong now which, with weather being favourable, could see harvest in around three weeks.
Heavy rain in June did make some thicker crops swing over and lodge, but hopefully, this won’t affect the grain quality too badly. Once again, a spell of dry and sunny weather would help this crop be harvested in the best form.
There were areas of spring barley which took quite a bit of punishment from heavy rain in June. Barley doesn’t thrive in wet conditions and, when many crops were sitting in surface water, there was a consequential effect on lost tillers and stressed plants. The loss of fertiliser applied in May due to the heavy rain is also a concern.
Farmers aiming their spring barley at the low N malting market, the challenge is to find where the balance lies between feeding the crops to retain yield, while not affecting the uptake of N into the grain. This is a very difficult balance to strike!
Hopefully, with many crops beginning to head, the weather will be kinder from here till harvest to allow for grain quality to be the best it can be since yields are unlikely to be great and retaining quality premia will be essential.
Markets
Wheat
Following bullish news in May, which raised wheat values substantially and saw Nov 24 futures peak at £225, June has seen a lack of positive news to sustain this support. This has led to the market taking quite a significant downward trend over the last two to three weeks.
At the time of writing, Nov 24 futures stand at £200 ex-far and recently fell to around £194 ex-farm. Given that the new season harvest has commenced in southern areas of Europe, and most crops in other parts of the northern hemisphere have reached a point where the yield potential is more measurable, it is likely that prices will remain around these levels until another driver takes effect.
The only effect weather can have now is prolonged rain in main productive regions so watching forecasts will give some indication of whether or not there could be a late rally in prices going into harvest. The old crop market is as good as complete, so any remaining tonnages are likely to now be traded in the new season market
Barley
Although the winter barley crop is looking to have some promise yield-wise, it will be the performance of the spring crop which will influence the barley market to a greater degree.
The late sowing of the spring crop was always going to limit yield and the subsequent weather has put even more stress on these crops so there are concerns as to how well they will perform. There will also be the uncertainty of which crops will achieve quality standards for the malting market. If there is a high fall-out from this market, the feed barley price could be depressed due to extra supply.
Let us just hope that the weather gives all the cereal growers a fair break for a good harvest following one of the most testing seasons in memory.