As the crop growing season gets underway in earnest, the challenges of trying to read the grain market continue. Issues such as the Russo-Ukrainian war are well documented and have now been absorbed by most markets; the recent reverberations from President Trump’s introduction of tariffs are now creating uncertainties for cereal traders.
One example is that China is preparing to reduce the level of grain being fed to livestock. This will significantly reduce its need for imported corn from the US. The Effect this will have on grain prices in the UK is unknown, but news like this tends to keep downward pressure on market values.
On a positive note, after last season’s disappointing weather and subsequent poor harvest, the UK has enjoyed one of the best spring sowing seasons for many years. This has been followed by a good spring season, with farmers taking advantage of these conditions, which resulted in cereal crops being sown into very good seedbeds.
Crop conditions
Wheat
Almost without exception, winter wheat crops have responded to being sown into excellent seedbeds and are in very good condition. There have been some reports of delays in farms having difficulties getting fertilisers this spring, all winter crops will now have had all their PK requirement, and probably 75-80% of their nitrogen demand.
The recent good weather means that disease levels are low, and most crops will be getting preventative fungicides now to try and deal with any disease which may come with any change in the weather.
Barley
Like the winter wheat crops, following an easy autumn and winter, the fields of winter barley are also in great shape. The recent dry weather has allowed farmers to get their timing right with fertiliser and spray applications, so the crops are moving towards harvest with great potential.
March and April’s good weather meant that most spring barley crops were sown earlier than we have seen for several years. This is a huge difference from a year ago, when there was still a large proportion of crops waiting to be sown as we entered May.
Recent local East Lothian records show 8mm of rain in March and 11mm for April. These dry conditions have put a little stress on the spring cereals, but most are coping well. This is probably due to the early sowing, which has encouraged strong root development.
The previously mentioned delay in fertiliser deliveries has, in some cases, meant later applications for some of the spring compounds on these crops. However, it is unlikely that it will negatively affect the crops.
Markets
Wheat
With the 2024 UK harvest producing the smallest cereal harvest for both wheat and barley, it was expected to have a positive effect on cereal values, especially when it came to this time of the marketing season.
However, with the large stock levels of wheat coming into this season, along with a weak global market, the last few months have seen wheat prices drift downwards. At the time of writing, wheat futures for May 25 are trading at £160, with local feed wheat currently paying around £172 ex-farm. These are the lowest values since spring 2024 and far lower than growers have budgeted for.
With the 2025 harvest looking promising, and reports of European crops also appearing to be in great shape, along with global reports talking of large maize harvests in South America, and US crops benefiting from rainfall, everything points to markets continuing to weaken.
Barley
The barley market is under pressure for the same reasons as we have spoken about for wheat.
Another element of added pressure for barley values is the current low demand for malt. The Scotch whisky market is going through a period of uncertainty due to the current situation with US tariffs. This will mean that there is more barley in the feed market, so putting prices under even more pressure.
Current ex-farm prices are reaching around £160, and there are reports of new crop prices starting around £150-£155.